After two rough and tumble years on the stump, bruising primaries, and a nasty general election campaign, in three days America will finally make its choice: The experienced, elder statesman with a maverick edge who acts on instinct or the thoughtful and eloquent but relative newcomer who dared the nation to share his audacity of hope for change. Who will it be?
David Bositis, senior research analyst at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, does not fancy himself a betting man. He spends his days examining facts and figures. Still, he’s more than willing to place a serious wager that Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama will be voted into the White House on Tuesday and carry several new members of the House and Senate on his coattails to boot. “People are afraid and mad and hateful about the economy and they’re going to take it out on the Republicans,†he predicts. “That’s what’s going to drive their vote.†Bositis thinks Obama will win by a margin of 52% to 45%.
Larry Berman, a political scientist at the University of California, Davis, is a betting man, and he’s betting that early voting and historic turnouts on Election Day will earn Obama somewhere between 330 and 350 Electoral College votes. Republican Sen. John McCain, he adds, may be exuding eternal optimism–what choice does he have–but the Republican has to be frustrated that none of the charges he’s thrown Obama’s way have stuck. “In these last few days, he’s hoping against hope that some people will change their minds. If Obama’s not a socialist, maybe he’s a communist; if he’s not a communist, maybe he’s hanging around with terrorists. He’s trying to find something that will work, but nothing’s working because Obama’s got the winning strategy.â€
During the candidates’ final full week on the campaign trail, the polls have tightened, however, giving Republican Sen. John McCain at least some reason to hope that he might actually pull off a Harry Truman-type upset. “I would say the one thing that’s clear is that we’ve established some momentum. We’re increased our gains in virtually every one of the battleground states throughout the course of the weeks,†McCain campaign manager Rick Davis told reporters on Friday. “We’ve had probably the best 10 days of polling since the convention. We think we’ve shaken off the effects of the financial collapse that suppressed our numbers prior to the last debate, and we believe we are on a run right now that, from what we can tell, will be unabated through the course of the election.â€
But Michael Tanner, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, argues that the slight movement in McCain’s favor is just part of the natural progression of what happens in the polls at this stage in the political game; a settling, as it were. “People revert to their normal voting patterns; Republicans vote for Republicans and Democrats vote for Democrats. The lead goes from high to low single digits, but it’s still a lead and there’s not a whole lot of time for things to shift,†he says. Both candidates are focusing on their ground game, which will be crucial as the campaign winds down, particularly in the battlegrounds. “Now it’s all about turnout. What Obama is essentially hoping is that his increase in African Americans and young people and pulling over some ampforwp-incontent-ad3">
McCain’s relentless charges this week that Obama’s economic plans will redistribute the wealth of America with higher taxes have made some traction with voters, Tanner believes, but have probably come too late to truly be effective. In addition, McCain’s focus remains on unifying the Republican base, which has never considered him its standard bearer, while Obama has been free to reach out to the middle. The remaining 6% or so of undecideds will probably vote for McCain or not vote at all, Tanner says, but at this point Obama doesn’t need many of them to pull off a win. His bet is that Obama will win by 50% to 48% with about 280 Electoral College votes.
In an infomercial Wednesday night that aired on seven television networks and clearly targeted undecided voters, Obama featured people they could relate to, outlined his plans for the nation, and refrained from criticizing McCain. “He has clearly decided on a closing argument that closes the circle and brings the end of the campaign to where it started: calls for unity, one America, and a new start for the country. Obama’s not putting any new arguments on the table or attacking his opponent. He’s trying to make the best case for himself as a reformer and healer,†says William Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
October has come and gone with no surprise–the event in political lore that can dramatically influence the outcome of a presidential election. In 1992, in the contest between President George H.W. Bush and Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger was indicted in the Iran-Contra affair. In 2004, Osama bin Laden released a tape that some believe cost Mass. Sen. John Kerry his race against President George W. Bush. But in 2008, the October surprise may be that there was none at all. “The two candidates will live or die with the campaigns you now see. I don’t expect any changes because it will be too late to make a difference anyway,†says Galston.