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Will two billion jobs disappear by 2030? Futurist Thomas Frey seems to think so. During a recent talk at TEDxReset in Istanbul, Turkey, he predicted 50% of the jobs worldwide would disappear over the span of the next 18 years. In the U.S. we have already seen manual labor jobs outsourced to other countries. As we move towards a knowledge-based economy, menial/manual labor jobs will continue to trend in this direction. This is especially true for clerical and office support jobs, due to technology like online faxing services and mobile applications. These technologies allow businesses to manage many traditional administrative services with less human intervention. Although just theories, Frey’s ideas are quite intriguing and lead to an interesting discussion about where the job market is going in terms of the jobs to be lost and the employment opportunities that will emerge to replace those positions.
The Industries Most Likely to Be Impacted
During his talk, Frey discussed five industries that will see the most job loss in the coming years due to technological advancements, but we’ll focus on the following four: (1) automobile transportation, (2) education, (3) 3D printing, and (4) bots.
Automobile Transportation
Driverless technology already exists and goes by the legal name of “autonomous car.†It is currently only legal in one state Nevada, but the Google Driverless Car project is working to help expand the adoption of this technology.
Thomas Frey’s Theory of Jobs Eliminated:
- Elimination of taxi, limo, bus, mail and truck drivers, as well as FedEx and UPS delivery jobs
- Reduction in the number of manufactured vehicles and shifting to transportation-on-demand systems
Thomas Frey’s Theory of Jobs Created:
- Delivery dispatchers
- Automated traffic architects, engineers, and designers
- Driverless “ride experience†people and operating system engineers
Education
The movement of open courseware education was popularized by iTunes U. Now there’s Khan Academy and MIT creating models for established universities and organizations that want to provide education for anyone anywhere.
Thomas Frey’s Theory of Jobs Eliminated:
- Elimination of teachers, trainers and professors
Thomas Frey Theory of Jobs Created:
- Coaches, course designers and learning camps