The Key to the Right V.P.

As the Democratic and Republican national conventions draw close, all eyes will not only be on the parties’ nomination for president but who is going to be the vice presidential candidate or running mate. Political analysts note many factors influence a candidate’s ideal running mate, although the common thread among party delegates is to balance the ticket. So, a particular running mate may be chosen to appeal to a certain geographic region, ideology, or voting constituency–or even to help restore party harmony after a bitter campaign.

But any intelligent prediction about who the presidential candidates may choose as their vice president in the 2008 general election should begin with an assessment of strengths and weaknesses, say party insiders. The vice president is expected to bridge the gap between what the public wants and what that candidate possesses.
Here’s how potential vice presidential candidates stack up to the presidential hopefuls:

BARACK OBAMA
Obama has many advantages: He is a fresh face, young, energetic, eloquent, and very charismatic. He proposes change and is not associated with the Bush administration. His challenge, however, is being viewed as lacking foreign policy and military experience. Also, many polls show that if Obama were to run against McCain, several swing states could turn Republican.

“If Obama is looking for someone to help him with the experience issue, he might look at former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn, an elder statesman like former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley, or former NATO Comdr. Wesley Clark,” says David Johnson, a Republican strategist and pollster who worked on Bob Dole’s 1988 campaign. “Clark or Jim Webb stands out if he is looking for someone to bolster the national defense issue.”

Obama is also having a hard time with working-class Reagan Democrats in states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, who are responding more to McCain at this point in the campaign. Add to the fact that Obama is polling very poorly among Jewish and Hispanic voters, who traditionally vote Democratic. Wesley Clark, along with governors Bill Richardson of New Mexico, Edward Rendell of Pennsylvania, and Ted Strickland of Ohio, would fit that role as running mates with a strong record of being pro-Israel. Additionally, these governors could potentially help him carry any one of those swing states where polling shows McCain slightly ahead of Obama, Johnson says.

Strickland, however, endorses Clinton and has made less than flattering comments about the Obama campaign. “Rendell and Strickland also have strong appeal to Reagan Democrats or blue-collar Democrats in the Northeast, identified as Catholic voters and members of labor unions who are very socially and culturally conservative on issues,” Johnson says. Reagan Democrats voted for the candidate in 1980 and 1984 and for George H.W. Bush in 1988 because they felt the Democratic Party was too far left on social issues.

As the former ambassador to the United Nations, Richardson has a great deal of foreign policy experience that could benefit Obama. Additionally, his being Mexican American could help Obama with the Hispanic voter block.

Other vice president potentials who might help Obama carry their states are Wisconsin’s Gov. Jim Doyle, and Virginia’s Gov. Tim Kaine. In a radio interview, Obama admitted earlier this year that Kaine is on his short list to play a role in his administration. Virginia’s Sen. James Webb would be a stellar choice as vice president considering that he is a former Navy officer and Vietnam veteran, and a former Secretary of the Navy. When interviewed on NBC’s “Meet the Press” Sen. Webb said he would not rule it out, but was not that interested in the vice president position.

HILLARY CLINTON
Most political analysts have given up on a Clinton democratic presidential nomination. “If by some far-reaching chance Hillary were to grab the Democratic nomination, I think she would have to offer Barack Obama the V.P. spot right away,” Johnson says. “He would have to be her first pick. There would be such bitterness that if she did not offer him the nomination a lot of his supporters would sit out. If he were to turn it down, she would need to give Obama veto power over whomever she selected.”
In 1976, Gerald Ford gave Ronald Reagan a list of names, and Reagan told him who was acceptable and who wasn’t, because they had a very spirited contest where Ford narrowly defeated Reagan at the Republican convention. The scenario between democrats Clinton and Obama would play out in nearly the same way, Johnson says.

The only time a vice presidential choice really made a difference was when Jack Kennedy took Lyndon Johnson as the running mate, Johnson recalls. “Without him Kennedy probably would have lost Texas and the election. A lot of the southerners, especially in Texas, weren’t willing to support a Catholic and someone from New England. Johnson helped hold the South for him.”

Clinton is seen as softer on security, and McCain appears to have more knowledge about world affairs than her. Both critiques might cause her to choose a running mate that is a veteran like Sen. James Webb.

“Hillary would probably need to pick someone from the Midwest or South to give regional balance, naturally it would be a male and someone who is more of a moderate democrat,” says Silas Lee, national pollster and sociology professor at Xavier University in New Orleans.

With even John McCain running as the maverick Republican, Clinton will also need a fresh face or someone who is not associated with the mess in Washington.

THE OBAMA/CLINTON BALLOT
Evidence continues to build against the success of an Obama/Clinton presidential ticket. Rutgers’s University political science professor emeritus Gerald Pomper’s commentary on the Rasmussen Website offers that an Obama/Clinton ticket is pushing the limits of tolerance especially when it is considered that white males constitute 40% of the electorate. He claims that democrats will need to counter the appeal of John McCain to this group of the constituency.

If Obama were to choose Clinton as his running mate, 29% of his supporters would favor her as opposed to 53% of her supporters who would favor him. Many interpret this to mean that if Clinton wins the democratic nomination Obama has a good chance to run with her as vice president but if Obama wins it is less likely that he will choose her. Although she has instant name recognition and could help him with blue collar voters the idea that the Clintons will be a distraction to Obama’s campaign is an echoing opinion, says party insiders.

“The key is to pick a running mate that won’t hurt you or overshadow the presidential candidate,” Johnson says. “Barack Obama is talking about bringing change to Washington. You have to remember that Hillary Clinton represents the policies of the past and the same old ways of doing things in Washington, D.C.”

JOHN MCCAIN
“McCain needs someone who is conservative but not too wildly conservative; someone who is younger, with administrative experience, but not an old hand,” says independent pollster and political analyst John Zogby, president and CEO of Zogby International, a public opinion research company. “McCain’s weakness is the economy. He wants someone who brings economic strength, is not going to divide the party and who will be a peace offering to help make [amends] with the conservative party.”
If elected, McCain’s age will be 72, causing many to believe that his would be a one-term presidency. “Whoever he selects has to be younger than him and someone who can be poised as the next leader for the Republican Party,” Johnson says.

Pundits suggest McCain will pick someone to the center or middle, based on what independents are looking for. “He won’t go to the left because he is already seen as a maverick Republican. That means ideologically he might probably look for someone a little bit more conservative than he is,” Lee says. “McCain has always had a problem convincing conservative Republicans that he is conservative enough.”

An open-ended Gallup poll asked Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents who they would like to see as McCain’s running mate. Huckabee led the pack with 18%, followed by Mitt Romney (15%), Condoleezza Rice (8%), and Fred Thompson (4%).

“Former presidential candidate Mike Huckabee would help consolidate McCain’s problems with Christian evangelic voters,” Johnson says. Still, Huckabee’s refusal to drop out of the Republican nominee process may have hurt his chances to be chosen as vice president. Some saw his continued trek contrary to evidence of an inevitable loss as a sign of poor judgment that also might have ruffled McCain’s feathers.

Arkansas is a Republican state, so there is no need for McCain to

put Huckabee on the ticket as a means to win that state. Likewise, although McCain is less than popular with social conservatives, polls suggest evangelical Christians will likely vote Republican with or without Huckabee, if Obama is the opponent. “Mitt Romney, would help McCain consolidate the conservative base,” Johnson says. “Also, he is younger than McCain and fills up the gap in the economy which is seen as one of McCain’s weaker issues.”

Zogby suggests that McCain would avoid Condoleezza Rice since she is the Secretary of State and one of the architects of the Iraq war. “In some ways he has to run against Washington. He also has to distance himself from this administration,” Zogby says. “He can’t be seen as too close to the establishment so it makes sense for him to go out to the states and get someone with administrative experience.”

“Florida’s governor Charlie Crist, former Ohio congressman and budget director Rob Portman, and Minnesota’s Gov. Tim Pawlenty might help McCain carry their states. However, last February, in an interview with The Hill, a congressional newspaper, Portman, 52, made it known that he does not aspire to be the vice presidential nominee.

Lee is quick to note that voters are less likely to remember where Bill Richardson, John Edwards, or Mike Huckabee happened to place in the primaries. “It is a new day. What happened in the primaries is basically history,” Lee says. There has been speculation of an Obama and John Edwards ticket. But Lee adds, “John Edwards’ ability to effectively compete as a candidate does not relate to how he will be perceived as someone sharing a ticket.”

When considering a vice president as a means to win a state, some pundits point to the fact that John Edwards could not bring North Carolina into the Democratic fold in the 2004 presidential election. The public really doesn’t pay a lot of attention to the vice president, Lee says. “It is nice ideologically, and cosmetically it is nice to have that balance, but bottom line–they are voting for the person running for president, not the vice president.”