The Campaign Trail

During the Democratic primary season, Sen. Barack Obama proved himself to be not only a formidable candidate, bringing down the powerful Clinton machine, but also one of the best fundraisers in American political history. Key to that success was the small, online donations he received from more than 1 million supporters. Citing that his campaign is “truly funded by the American people,” the now presumptive Democratic nominee recently announced his decision to opt out of public financing for the general campaign. Days later, Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, who has had a more difficult time raising campaign funds, cried foul, launching a Web ad called “Words” that charged his opponent with breaking a pledge to both him and the American people.

Political hypocrisy or smart move? According to Democratic strategist Julian Epstein, the Illinois senator had no choice. Public campaign funds come from the $3 voluntary check-off on federal tax returns. This year it would provide each candidate with approximately $84 million.

Obama contends that he will need more than that to respond to attacks from conservative independent groups and 527s, such as the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth who opposed Sen. John Kerry’s 2004 presidential campaign. These groups do not have spending limits.

“I think a lot of Republican money is going to fall into 527s and they will be the engines of the politics of fear. Obama will need to have an equal amount of resources to be able to get his positive message out,” Epstein says. “The reality is the public financing would have limited him.”

Republican strategist Ron Thomas argues that Obama’s explanation for not accepting public financing is disingenuous. He says, “I just don’t buy into the whole thing that he’s just now realizing he needs to have the dollars to combat the 527s and Republicans. It takes money to run a campaign, but I think it’s intellectually dishonest to expect people to think that Obama didn’t know these things were going to happen.”

Freeing himself from the constraints posed by public financing will also enable Obama to expand his options and be more competitive in various states. “It will allow him to expand the electoral map by devoting resources to a number of states where Democrats have not actively campaigned in recent elections, such as Virginia and Georgia,” says The Brookings Institution fellow Anthony Corrado. Last week Obama’s campaign launched its first general election television ad in 18 states across the nation, many of which President George W. Bush won in 2004. “His campaign has also stated that they’re planning to put staff in all of the states, which I think is going to help him to change some of the Electoral College map and put further demands on the McCain campaign to decide whether they’re going to have to spread out their resources or remain focused on a handful of 15 to18 battleground states that were the focus of the last two presidential elections,” Corrado adds.

He also believes McCain will not regret going with public financing because, lacking the fundraising energy of his opponent, he won’t have to take time from campaigning to raise money. There will be $19 million in coordinated party money and the millions of dollars the RNC can raise independently. In addition, Corrado says, McCain is raising approximately $20 million to $25 million a month and can continue to do so through the end of the summer.

Public financing and other issues have led McCain to begin questioning Obama’s trustworthiness. Last week, the Democratic candidate said he would vote in favor of granting immunity from lawsuits to telecommunications that allegedly cooperated with the Bush administration’s warrantless wiretaps after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

He also stated he would back the death penalty for child rapists. Epstein says Obama is seeking middle ground on a variety of issues. “I think he’s been very intelligent about moving to the political center and talking about values, including religious values, in a way that should touch a chord with religious values voters, but not offend the people on the left who worry about separation of church and state,” he says.

McCain is also no stranger to the political flip-flop. The Republican

candidate initially opposed Bush’s tax cuts, stating they would increase the deficit. McCain has also changed his mind on offshore drilling. “McCain, in trying to cast Obama’s public finance decision as a character issue that raises questions about whether he will keep his problems, is trying to highlight trust, which is always an essential characteristic to voters in a presidential candidate,” Corrado says.

Another controversy on the campaign trail involved comments by McCain’s senior adviser, Charlie Black, who reportedly stated that another terrorist attack would boost McCain’s campaign.

“It was a reflection of the fact that McCain’s strength right now lies in the gap between him and Obama on which candidate is better prepared to handle issues of terrorism and foreign policy,” Corrado says. “But the frankness of it was cast as an inappropriate comment that was not in line with the type of politics McCain is professing his campaign will practice. The two comments were more or less bookends on how both of the campaigns recognize how attributes of trust and leadership are going to be important concerns for voters and don’t concede any ground with respect to that aspect of the campaign.” So far, Obama is leading rival McCain in most polls, by a margin of 47% to 42%, and an LA Times/Bloomberg poll shows him leading by 12 points.

In a recent Gallup poll, 39% of respondents said they believe

Obama is “honest and trustworthy” versus 35% for McCain. On which candidate “can manage the government effectively,” respondents were evenly split at 42%, and 46% say McCain is a “strong and decisive leader” versus 40% who say the same of Obama.

Last week Obama held a unity rally in Unity, New Hampshire, with former rival Sen. Hillary Clinton, which was a significant move toward bringing the Democratic Party together.

“Obama has to make sure he puts some meat on the bones substantively.
His principle message has been about political reform, but at the end of the day voters want to know how he’s going to put meat and potatoes on the table,” Epstein says. “Republicans will cast him as being too far left and inexperienced.” McCain, he adds, needs to strengthen his economic message.

“The framework of the campaign is pretty clear. Obama’s strength is on economic issues and McCain’s strength is on foreign policy issues,” Epstein says. “One aspect of the summer campaign is going to be the extent to which one candidate can claim some of the territory that the other campaign has staked out.”

The Obama campaign announced over the weekend that the candidate is planning a trip to Europe and the Middle East, which will include a stop in Iraq. “And we’re going to see McCain talking more about solutions for the economy,” Corrado says.