No Boost In Polls Show Public Is Unswayed By Shooting At Trump Rally

What did they really think would happen?

The first presidential survey taken since the assassination attempt of former President Donald Trump revealed there was no boost in his poll numbers over President Joe Biden.

The poll conducted by Morning Consult on July 15 found that out of 2,045 registered voters, Trump is leading Biden in the polls by just 1%, with 46% over the President’s 45%. Trump’s lead has slightly increased since the firm’s previous survey, which was conducted between July 12 and July 14, putting the former president at a 2% advantage ahead of Biden, with 44% to 42%.

This latest poll may have analysts stumped as some predicted that Trump would see a surge in polls after surviving the assassination attempt. Republican strategist John Thomas even predicted it would be labeled a unifying moment for the nation, which would result in Trump’s “total victory in November.” “Immediately after [Trump] got up at his rally, you’ll notice that the crowd cheered, with epic proportions,” Thomas said, according to Newsweek.

“We’re seeing all over the country that people, whether honestly you like Trump or you don’t, you are rallying behind Trump in this moment. And I anticipate. I think this is going to be a moment of unity. And I suspect it will propel Donald Trump’s campaign to total victory in November.”

Before the shooting, national polls had Trump labeled as a favorite to win the White House. In a week before the events at the rally, he had a narrow lead in six key battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, where the shooting occurred.

However, despite the imagery of the GOP candidate raising a bloody fist to the crowd after the shooting, Trump is only leading Biden by a narrow margin. The President hopes to close that gap while defending his place in the race ahead of the upcoming Democratic National Convention, regardless of extreme pressure from fellow party members calling for him to step down.

While poll numbers help create a narrative for either candidate, polling reliability has come under fire after some state results of the 2016 and 2020 elections were accused of missing the final results. Since then, polling firms have changed specific methods, but critics remain skeptical about turnout and the challenges that come from capturing views of key demographics like Black voters.

Black voters were vital in Biden’s 2020 election. However, several are on the fence about voting for him in November 2024 due to the lack of economic growth. However, for Trump, the same demographic can’t seem to forget about some of the racist policies put into place under his 2016 administration.