If you want to know how the American shopper feels from one month to the next you can peruse a stack of consumer sentiment surveys–or you can chat with Liz Dunn. Since graduating from Spelman College in 1996, Dunn has steeped herself in the retail industry’s most vital statistics. She has worked in corporate finance positions at Gap Inc. and Liz Claiborne, studied the sector’s ups and downs for investment clients at Prudential Equity Group, and worked as an investment banker in the consumer sector at Bear Stearns. As a managing director and retail equity analyst at Thomas Weisel Partners in New York, one of the frequent questions Dunn hears from investors these days is: “Can the economy–two-thirds of which is driven by consumer spending–rebound while Americans are still nursing post-recession shell-shock?†Dunn spoke to black enterprise recently about the economy and a handful of retailers prepared to capitalize on value-driven shoppers.
What’s your general forecast for market performance during the rest of 2010?
I think we’re going to continue to see some ups and downs. But, generally, directionally we should continue to move up. A number of my clients were concerned about the possibility of a double dip in the recession. Now, the consensus is shifting away from that. We’re probably headed for a more gradual recovery. As large funds position themselves for that–as opposed to the double dip–they’re going to continue to buy stock.
As far as economic recovery, economists are saying a real rebound can’t happen without job growth, which would give consumers confidence to start spending again. Is that your view?
Yes. But what we saw through the 2009 Christmas holidays is the consumer is becoming a bit more confident. The [sales] numbers, largely, came in better than expected. We’re beginning to see positive retail sales performance from many of the largest retailers. The jobs recovery is certainly important, and that’s going to lead us out of this. But I think that we’ve stabilized and seen the worst of it. Based on the consumer confidence numbers, that’s how the consumer is feeling as well. There’s some anticipation that things are beginning to improve, and spending patterns are reflecting that.
Before the economic downturn, U.S. consumers had become extremely undisciplined in their spending and saving habits. Do you think the recession will have a lasting influence in reversing these behaviors?
We could see a decade-long change in spending patterns. Not that we won’t see growth, but the type of spending that’s done will be a lot less conspicuous. The consumer has had a sobering moment as a result of the downturn. Everyone has looked at their household P&L [profit and loss statement] and said, “You know, there were a lot of things that were going on back then that weren’t necessarily appropriate or needed.†There will
So, I assume the stocks you like right now are retailers positioned to benefit from this new attitude among consumers?
That’s right. My first company is Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc. (ULTA). It’s a growth story. One thing that we’ve seen as part of this downturn is that growth has been cut way back. Among the companies I cover, we’ve seen annual square footage growth go from 15% in 2007 to 4% on average in 2009. Ulta, though, still has a strong pipeline of growth ahead of it. They’re about one-third of the way to their goal of having 1,000 stores by 2017. They have several years of strong double-digit growth ahead of them. Their aim is to be a category killer and dominate the beauty category. If you look at how the average woman spends in the beauty category, she may go to the drug store for a $12 mascara, and then to a department
Any other growth stories like that in your coverage area?
Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) is also a bit of a growth company. It’s more of a proven concept. I expect their revenue growth to be in the range of 20% over at least the next five years. They’ve got two main concepts: the Urban Outfitters brand and the Anthropologie brand. But the company is extremely innovative. They’re still adding stores. Additionally, they have newer concepts like Free People (a clothing boutique for young women) that they’re working on to be future drivers of growth. Also, recently they’ve talked about Europe a lot more than they have historically. They’ve had a handful of stores in Europe for 12 years. But recently, they’ve increased their focus on Europe and added some talent there. Now, it’s becoming a much more well thought out strategy for growth. What’s interesting about this company is that it has
And your final pick?
My last pick, Ann Taylor Stores Corp. (ANN), is a turnaround story. It’s interesting for a number of reasons. In recent years, they’ve disappointed their target customer–a 30-year-old woman. The issue was their product was too basic and too safe. There was not enough color or novelty. In downturns, retailers typically lose their confidence. They think: “We know black pants sell. So, let’s make black pants.†Ann Taylor was lacking the something special. Sometimes they were targeted to the conservative woman and sometimes the party girl. They lost their way and the brand vision was muddled. Ann Taylor added new management talent in 2008 and 2009 and promised that we’d see some improvement in the product line. They’ve also made some dramatic expense cuts, cutting a third of their headquarters staff. That provides them with a cost base where they can capitalize and deliver much better profitability. My year-end price target is $18.
This article originally appeared in the April 2010 issue of Black Enterprise magazine.