Battleground States

This year’s presidential election promises to be wildly different from those in years past. The nation will most likely witness the history-making campaign of Sen. Barack Obama, who hopes to become America’s first black president. And then there’s Sen. John McCain, who because of his maverick disposition and willingness to work with the other side on bipartisan legislation, has been dubbed by some as Republican in name only.

This time last year, Republicans were urging their conservative soul mate, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, to enter the race, while Sen. Hillary Clinton was feeling what could only be described as “inevitable.” Throughout the nominating process, however, there have often been discussions about whether either Obama or McCain can keep a tight reign on his party’s faithful.

Political pundits wonder: Will Clinton supporters vote for Obama? Will true-blue conservatives stay home, or hold their noses and help lead McCain to victory? What about independents? As Republicans and Democrats begin to focus more attention on the general election, voters can expect each party to try to redefine the campaign map in an attempt to gain a majority of the 538 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House.

“For all kinds of reasons, I think this election is different than others. There are some obvious reasons, like history-making candidates, but another is that independents are going to play such an important role,” says Carly Fiorina, the Republican National Committee Victory ’08 chairman. “The number of Americans registered as independents is the highest it’s ever been, and the consequence of that is McCain and the Democratic [nominee] are going to run, in essence, in every state in the country.”

Ruy Teixeira, a joint fellow at the Century foundation and American Progress, also believes that independent voters will be critical to both sides. “Obama is running quite well among independent groups in the general election and primary contests, and the Democrats need to do better among them than they did in 2004. They agree with Democrats on most issues, and are extremely dissatisfied with Bush and his administration, the Iraq war, and the economy,” he says.

Teixeira believes that McCain, more than other Republicans, has an appeal among independents. “But I think the Democrats will seek to identify him as closely as possible with the Bush administration. That could give Obama the edge in appealing to independents.”

In past presidential races, both parties have been able to rely on traditional strongholds. A look at election results from both 2000 and 2004 shows little variation in states that were Democratic blue or Republican red. Some of that will not change this year, analysts say.

“This is not rocket science. Republicans will clearly get the deep South, as opposed to the border South, and virtually all of the plain states, plus the northern rocky states. I would be astonished if they didn’t carry states like Idaho, Montana, and Utah,” says William Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “On the Democratic side, I would expect that they have most, if not all, of New England and New York State. Pennsylvania isn’t in the bag, but in a normal year it’s a blue state. There’s also Michigan, Illinois and most of the western tier, if not all of it. I would be surprised if Democrats didn’t carry California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii.”

According to Fiorina, Democrats can expect a battle in many of those states. She says, “McCain will fight for California and fight hard in all kinds of places, including Washington, Oregon, and New Mexico. I don’t think it’s going to be the same as in ’04, where you can say here are the red, the blue, and a couple of toss-ups.”

Obama won Virginia handily in his primary contest against Clinton, and hopes to turn that state blue. David Bositis, senior research analyst at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, thinks it could happen. “Republicans have won Virginia in every election since 1964, but it has become increasingly Democrat and Obama has a good chance to pick it up. In one sense, it’s much more important for McCain than Obama.”

Bositis believes that given each party’s 50-state strategy, Obama may already have an advantage over the Republican nominee. As a result of the prolonged Democratic nominating process, the Illinois senator has built a large base of support across the country, opening up many targets of opportunity. On the other hand, he says, “The map is filled with must-win states for McCain. He has to win Ohio, for example, because if Sen. John Kerry had won it in 2004, he would have been president. Bush won last time with minimal support across the country.”

Right now, it’s close, Bositis says. “But remember, there’s this really unpopular Republican brand and McCain has had a free ride for the past three

months,” he adds. “Everyone’s been throwing dirt at and dissing Obama, and he’s still slightly ahead in Ohio based on an average of all polls taken. He also has this super-colossal, magical ground operation that is going to turn everybody out like crazy.”

In Galston’s opinion, both candidates have some must-win states on the map. “I don’t see how a Democrat can lose either Michigan or Pennsylvania and have a realistic hope of winning the presidency,” he says. “Similarly, no Republican in modern political history has been elected without winning Ohio. If the Obama camp can find a way of denying Ohio to McCain, he’ll be the next president.”

Colorado, which was red in 2004, is another state Democrats hope to put in play, and experts also add Nevada and New Mexico to that list. Galston points to changing demographics as the reason why states such as Virginia and Colorado could be more competitive this year.

“I think there are demographic trends that are likely to make states such as [those] more competitive,” he says. “I would now put Virginia and Colorado in the purple category based on patterns of migration with new residents, who are white and well educated, coming into northern Virginia and Boulder in droves. Demographics will play a huge role. They won’t absolutely determine the outcome, but will shape the outcome.”

Galston predicts that if Obama is the presidential nominee, he will win the lion’s share of a record turnout of black voters and perform extraordinarily well with young adults. McCain will get a wide majority of “whatever evangelical vote turns out and do very well among the oldest Americans,” he says. Galston also believes Obama will get a large majority of the Jewish vote.

The badly damaged Republican “brand” Bositis speaks of could also impact election results this fall. “It’s certainly shaping the battlefield of the campaign. Bush’s unpopularity has driven down the percentage of the electorate that identifies with the Republican Party,” Galston says. “That’s what Republican operatives mean when they say the Republican brand has been discredited. People don’t want to call themselves Republicans anymore. Conversely, party enrollment among Democrats is way up in part as a reaction to Bush’s policies and unpleasant memories with how the Republican majority in Congress conducted itself a while back, he adds.

Galston points to the fact that McCain, unlike former President George H.W. Bush, cannot run for the third term of a popular incumbent. “He’s going to have a very hard time equaling the enthusiasm that’s rained down in the Democratic Party. The best he can do is try to scare Republicans and as many independents as he can scrape up by claiming that Obama will be a liberal or even a radical president, contrary to his claims that he wants to bring the country together and is capable of doing so.”
McCain might possibly have had an easier time in a contest against Clinton. “Republicans who aren’t enthusiastic about McCain would be enthusiastically opposed to her,” Galston says. McCain would have been the beneficiary. “I don’t think that Republican antipathy for Obama has reached anything like the emotional pitch that has been there for a long time with Clinton.”