Voter turnout for midterm elections tends to be anemic compared to presidential contests. In 2006, for example, only 45.8% and 38.6% of registered white and black voters, respectively, actually cast ballots. In 2008, however, voters exceeded all expectations, moved by the opportunity to elect the nation’s first black president and his clarion call for change.
As in previous midterms, voters this year will likely express their dissatisfaction with the majority party by staying home or shifting support. Depending on the political analysis, Democrats will realize significant losses in the House or U.S. Senate or participate in a repeat of 1994 when conservatives took control of both houses.
House Majority Whip James Clyburn concedes change has been slow in coming but the upcoming election is all about protecting hard-won reforms. He maintains African American and Latino voters have the most to lose if the GOP takes control. “I’m convinced that if we do not have a turnout in minority communities at least equal to our percentage of the voting population,†he says, “we could very well see ourselves turning the clock back on so many issues that were very important to those communities.â€
As voters decide on whether to go to the polls in the next 19 days, lawmakers, activists and political analysts have identified key reasons why midterms are important to African Americans:
THE ECONOMY
Due to the sluggish economic recovery, black joblessness remains staggeringly high. According to the Labor Department’s recent jobs report, black unemployment for September was 16.1% compared to the 9.6% national rate. Although there’s no quick fix on the jobs front, Clyburn maintains, Republicans will push policies that will make matters worse. For example, he charges that the GOP voted 11 times against legislation that would close loopholes that allow American companies to outsource jobs overseas and eight times to create loopholes that would enable them do so. In addition, he says, the GOP wants to continue Bush tax cuts that benefit the wealthy. “Republicans have rejected middle-income tax cuts every chance they got and are proposing a repeat of the Bush policies. In their own words, they’d do nothing different from what they’ve done in the past,†Clyburn says.
If the GOP gains control, University of Michigan political scientist Vincent Hutchings asserts, far more emphasis would be placed on deficit reduction and lowering taxes than providing services to help individuals hurt by the downturn. “This is not a party that historically has sought to provide jobs for lower middle-income and working-class people. That’s not their constituency,†he maintains. Hutchings also believes that Democrats have been “mostly indifferent†to specific concerns of African Americans but Republicans would be “hostile.â€
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SMALL BUSINESS
Anthony Robinson, president of the Minority Business Legal Defense and Education Fund, has only just begun to see small, minority-owned businesses digging out of a “deep, dark hole†due to such initiatives as the $30 billion Small Business Lending Fund. “Those kinds of initiatives did not and would not take place under a Republican-led Congress, which tends to favor big business,†Robinson says.
A shift in power
would result in a “wholesale lack of sensitivity†in the policy-making process, adds Robinson. He believes the GOP is less concerned about inclusion while Democrats understand the benefits of creating provisions to aid minority businesses that have historically created jobs for people of color.FINANCIAL REFORM
Robert Smith, a San Francisco State University political scientist, maintains that a GOP-controlled congress would likely use its appropriations power to slow down implementation of the financial services industry reform bill as well as hold hearings to investigate unfavorable provisions such as the Consumer Financial Protection Agency.
Part of that bill seeks to protect minorities from predatory mortgage lending practices that have caused thousands of African Americans and other minorities to lose homes to foreclosure. A recent study by the Center for Responsible Lending found that blacks and Latinos were 70% more likely than whites to lose their homes during 2007-2009. Says Hilary Shelton, who heads the NAACP’s Washington bureau: “One of the biggest concerns facing African Americans in the economic downturn is its residual impact on homeownership. Without sympathetic Democrats heading and sitting on influential committees such as the Financial Services panel, the impact could grow worse.â€
HEALTHCARE
Although Obama’s historic healthcare package passed earlier this year, it still is under attack.   Smith says Republicans would not have the power to repeal the bill outright but “if they win either chamber, they’ll try to find various ways to frustrate its implementation.†He says they use the appropriations process to significantly reduce or completely cut off funding for parts of the bill before they go into effect. Such a move would disproportionately harm African Americans and other minorities already burdened by disproportionate healthcare disparities. According to a Kaiser Family Foundation report on healthcare reform and people of color, minorities represent 50% of the nation’s uninsured and are less likely to have employer-provided coverage.
More on the elections: